Posts

Defining the FX Flash Crash

On the 15th January 2015, the euro crashed 20% against the Swiss franc in a matter of moments, before recovering rapidly. Similarly, on 7th October 2016, sterling plunged in value by over 9% against the dollar, again regaining most of its value minutes later.

These are amongst the most famous examples of the market phenomena know as the ‘flash crash’, but they are by no means the only examples. In fact, according to a study by algorithmic trading technology provider, Pragma, which aims to help monitor and track the prevalence of flash crashes, there were some 69 flash crashes in 2015 and 2016. Almost one a fortnight.

The causes of these market phenomena are unknown. It has been suggested that flash crashes are the result of ‘fat-fingered traders’ or lapses of human judgement. After the pound sterling incident, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) released a report which suggested technical error as a possible cause.

However, as most research has considered these events as of one-off incidences, drawing generalised conclusions has been difficult. Without other flash crashes to compare, it is not possible to tell which variables in a complex market are contributing to the crash and which were incidental. For example, some commentators have suggested that a principal cause is algorithms overreacting to news events, but further study has found no particular correlation between other flash crashes and news events.

This is where Pragma’s research is vital. It has analysed two years of tick by tick foreign exchange data to identify and catalogue all instances of flash crashes across numerous major currencies between 2015 and 2016. To do this, it has developed a precise, quantitative definition of the flash crash.

Previously, the BIS described a flash crash as a ‘large, fast, V-shaped price move and a sudden widening of bid-offer spreads,’ the V-shape implies a reversion of the price after the initial price move. Pragma’s definition builds on the BIS’s and defines a flash crash as having a:

  • Large price move ( 13x than normal price volatility)
  • Widening bid-offer spread 2x normal)
  • Strong price reversion ( 70% price reversion)

Using this standard, the examined time period had 69 instances of what would be considered a flash crash.

This dataset allows industry analysts and academics to more accurately examine the causes of flash crashes and what effects such as changing technology, regulation and industry practices are having on market quality going into the future.

For now, the causes of flash crashes remain unclear. But Pragma’s research provides an important foundational step in moving the market towards a more full understanding of this market phenomena.

For more information, you can request Pragma’s research report here. You can also read more about the report on Bloomberg and Reuters.

A Reuters bon voyage… and welcome

So it’s bon voyage to Reuters’ Patrick Graham who is moving to India after almost four years covering the FX market.

Patrick covered the largest and most liquid financial market from its main trading centre in London through a period of profound change.

He now heads to Bangalore, where he will be overseeing over forty journalists at Reuters’ largest news bureau.

Chatsworth has worked closely with Patrick for many years and we wish him well as he embarks on this new stage of his career.

We also extend a warm welcome Patrick’s colleague Saikat to London, as joins the London FX team from his previous role covering Asian financial markets.

Cobalt closes investment from former Deutsche Bank COO Henry Ritchotte who also joins as Strategic Advisor

Cobalt, the FX post-trade processing network based on shared ledger technology, has closed an investment from Henry Ritchotte, the former Deutsche Bank COO who will also become a member of Cobalt’s strategic advisory board.

Henry Ritchotte spent over two decades at Deutsche Bank where he was a member of the Management Board and Group Executive Committee acting as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Digital Officer. Since leaving the bank at the end of 2016 Henry established RitMir Ventures, a principal investment firm focused on investing in products and services transforming finance through disruptive regulatory and technology driven business models.

Cobalt delivers a private peer-to-peer network that significantly reduces post-trade costs and risk for institutions operating in today’s FX markets. The platform is designed to create a single, shared view of a transaction on shared infrastructure and allows clients to reduce reconciliation and operational costs by up to 80%. With its production beta now live, Cobalt is ramping up to launch its live platform later this year.

Adrian Patten, Co-Founder of Cobalt, comments: “Henry’s investment reflects the increased interest our platform is receiving from the wider financial industry. With our innovative technology and his experience and knowledge, we are strongly positioned to redesign post-trade.”

Henry Ritchotte, Founder of RitMir Ventures, comments: “There has been comparatively little investment in post-trade over the past few decades. Cobalt’s network is an elegant solution that provides significant benefits for users and will reshape the industry as we know it. I look forward to working with the leadership team on their fresh approach to the post-trade challenges shared by all FX participants.”

Chatsworth congratulates Pragma and Cobalt on FX Week e-FX Award wins

Leading industry trade publication FX Week has announced the winners of its prestigious e-FX Awards, which included two of Chatsworth’s foreign exchange clients.

The awards recognise firms from across the foreign exchange industry for their excellence and innovation in the world’s most liquid financial market.

Announcing the award winners, FX Week editor Eva Szalay said technology in the market was “booming”, pointing out that “innovation has been extended to small start-ups, as well as the largest players” and highlighted the market’s “genuine desire to become more transparent, more competent and highly innovative”.

Innovation was certainly in evidence from algorithmic trading technology provider Pragma Securities, which was named Best independent algorithmic trading technology provider, and post-trade distributed ledger technology company Cobalt, which was awarded e-FX initiative of the year award.

Pragma

Reflecting on the increasing sophistication amongst the buy-side and the push for best execution in FX, Pragma has seen rapid growth and expansion over the past 12 months.

The company serves banks, brokers and sophisticated buy-side institutions, and identifies its value proposition around transparency and control as differentiating features.

It added a number of new capabilities to its Pragma360 algorithmic trading platform. This includes algorithmic trading non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), which offers traders better execution when investing in popular emerging market currencies.

It has also expanded its international client base through a new connectivity presence at Equinix’s LD6 data centre in London, providing lower latency connection to London based FX matching engines.

Cobalt

Cobalt has a very eye-catching proposition – it uses distributed ledger technology to cut 80% of the costs of post-trade reporting.

Founded by former Traiana executive Andy Coyne, and Adrian Patten, the company is offering to completely revolutionise the costly and time-consuming way in which post-trade FX services are conducted, cutting out duplication by storing records of all transactions on a single distributed ledger.

“I think if we are successful, the biggest impact will be on trading and Cobalt will increase volumes. Post-trade costs are a tax on trading and the idea that you can charge someone 50 cents to a buck for sending an unencrypted message to the back office is ridiculous.

“So if we can reduce those costs by dollars per transaction, that will feed into increasing volumes,” Patten tells FX Week.

The team at Chatsworth would like to congratulate both Cobalt and Pragma on their well-deserved award wins.

Chatsworth supports global push to restore trust to the world’s largest financial market

 

Foreign Exchange is the world’s largest and most liquid market and it has taken a repetitional battering over recent years.

Now the final part of the Bank of International Settlements’ (BIS) FX Global Code has been published, following a two-year, industry-wide effort to rebuild trust in the FX market following a series of scandals and market challenges over the past decade.

The Code sets out a comprehensive set of best practice guidelines which outline how all market participants should behave to uphold the highest standards of transparency and ethics in the wholesale FX market.

Chatsworth is proud to have played our part through our work with CLS and its CEO David Puth – Chairman of the BIS’s Market Participants Group and one of the principal authors of the code. This included an extensive engagement campaign to educate the press and FX market on the Code’s aims and objectives.

More than 1,500 people have had input to the Code and have helped to shape a set of high-level principles that will impact their day-to-day business practices.

The final document has received widespread support across the FX industry. A number of industry participants – banks, platform providers, technology vendors and trade associations – have backed it.

Now it is the time for the FX industry to adopt the Code’s principles and all FX professionals to read, understand and apply it to their everyday trading and transactional activity.

David Puth speaks to Bloomberg TV about the Code

 

JPY Gains, AUD Falls as China Weakens Yuan

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist, at DailyFX, comments:

“China has triggered another sharp burst of risk aversion after devaluing the Yuan by over 0.5 percent at today’s daily fix, marking the largest downward revision since Augusts’ fateful readjustment.  The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar dropped alongside Asian share prices while the safety-linked Japanese Yen outperformed. Cycle-sensitive commodities including copper and crude oil fell while gold and silver traded higher. Chinese stocks were shut down for the day after hitting the limit-down threshold of 7 percent.

 “The consensus interpretation for the markets’ negative response is that Chinese devaluation speaks to a need for emergency stimulus expansion, which implies greater-than-expected malaise in the world’s second-largest economy. Weakening the currency can be seen as a form monetary stimulus however, so one might have expected markets to cheer Beijing’s actions. With that in mind, it seems as though price action reflects a reflexive response drawing surface-level parallels with Augusts’ panic selling rather than a sober evaluation of China’s actions on their fundamental merits.

 “Looking ahead, S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower, hinting that risk aversion is aiming to continue in the hours ahead. The economic calendar is relatively quiet, putting the spotlight on Fed-speak as the source of event risk du-jour. Comments from Richard Lacker and Charles Evans, Presidents of the Richmond and Chicago Fed branches respectively, are due to cross the wires.

 “The two policymakers represent the hawkish and dovish extremes of last years’ contingent of FOMC voters. Traders will look to their remarks for clues about the likely 2016 rate hike path. The central bank projected four 25bps increases last month while the markets continue to envision no more than two. Investors’ dovish lean skews volatility risk to the upside for the US Dollar in the event that cumulative commentary strikes a hawkish tone.”