Chatsworth supports global push to restore trust to the world’s largest financial market

 

Foreign Exchange is the world’s largest and most liquid market and it has taken a repetitional battering over recent years.

Now the final part of the Bank of International Settlements’ (BIS) FX Global Code has been published, following a two-year, industry-wide effort to rebuild trust in the FX market following a series of scandals and market challenges over the past decade.

The Code sets out a comprehensive set of best practice guidelines which outline how all market participants should behave to uphold the highest standards of transparency and ethics in the wholesale FX market.

Chatsworth is proud to have played our part through our work with CLS and its CEO David Puth – Chairman of the BIS’s Market Participants Group and one of the principal authors of the code. This included an extensive engagement campaign to educate the press and FX market on the Code’s aims and objectives.

More than 1,500 people have had input to the Code and have helped to shape a set of high-level principles that will impact their day-to-day business practices.

The final document has received widespread support across the FX industry. A number of industry participants – banks, platform providers, technology vendors and trade associations – have backed it.

Now it is the time for the FX industry to adopt the Code’s principles and all FX professionals to read, understand and apply it to their everyday trading and transactional activity.

David Puth speaks to Bloomberg TV about the Code

 

Algo trading and interest in emerging market currencies will grow in 2017 driven by hunt for FX liquidity

Traders at across both buy and sell side are reporting that they plan to make more use of computer algorithms to trade FX in 2017 and are also setting their sights on traditionally less-traded currencies.

This matters. Foreign exchange – or FX – is the world’s largest and most liquid market, with around USD 5 trillion exchanged every day across borders.

FX underpins global trade and commerce, allowing countries, companies and institutions to trade, hedge and transfer risk.

Now a survey of over 200 FX trading institutions reveals that while 12% currently use algorithms, 38% plan to increase their use of algos in 2017.

JPMorgan believes 2017 is going to be “a watershed year for algo usage”.

In terms of currency mix, traders currently spend 70% of their time trading the major G10 currencies – including EUR, USD, GBP and JPY – and 26% in emerging markets.

This looks set to change in 2017 with 15% planning to increase their use of G10 currencies this year, with 32% planning to trade more emerging market* currencies as their liquidity continue to improve and they therefore become increasingly more attractive to trade.

So it’s no longer just about speed and a race to the bottom to be first in and out of the market – so called ‘bad algos’ beating everyone to the punchbowl.

The unifying theme of both the rise of the machines and the renewed interest in traditionally ‘less traded’ currencies is the search for liquidity in an increasingly fragmented and competitive market.

Algos can monitor and act across multiple venues, markets and currency pairs to flag opportunity or alert to risk.

Likewise, an uncertain macro-economic outlook plus improving liquidity makes trading in less-traded pairs much more attractive.

As the first signs of Donald Trump’s victory in U.S. presidential elections emerged the largest increase in currency pair activity was the U.S. dollar traded against the Mexican peso (USD/MXN), 63 times normal levels in the hour following the result.,

By way of comparison, spikes were also registered across the major currency pairs with input volumes ten times normal levels for EUR/USD for that hour, followed by USD/JPY and GBP/USD.

Turning to FX instrument type,40% of FX traders report that they plan to use more options in 2017, with a corresponding increase in cash, swaps and NDFs as hedging tools in an uncertain political and economic environment.

*On the whole at Chatsworth we’re not so keen on the term ‘emerging markets’ which is largely subjective and frequently inaccurate as many ‘emerged’ long ago.

The FX market’s six-month health check is due this week

The Bank of England releases FX trading data from the market for the six months to October last year. That covers a bouncy few months to say the least.

This data set will cover the Brexit vote and the not-entirely-event-free run up to the US election so we’ll be interesting to see what happened with dollar-peso volumes and Sterling which continues to be buffeted by the winds or Brexit and a significant degree of political and economic uncertainty.

These are unprecedented times for the flow and trade of global currencies and the structure of one of the world’s largest and most liquid markets.

The public face of the market has focussed on the conduct of some traders remains in the spotlight following a series of high profile legal cases over alleged malfeasance.

Much of this is being addressed through the Global Foreign Exchange Code of Conduct, led by the Bank for International Settlements.

But it is the changing role of the banks and the funds as makers and takers – the shape-shifting of the formerly API prop traders towards market maker status that, in our view, has delivered the most significant structural change.

Once dominated by the largest global banks, the growth of electronic trading has made it easier for relatively smaller financial firms to become directly involved in currency trading. Access to the market and competing trading venues have exacerbated this process.

Concurrently, regulation has limited the risk these banks can carry on their books, making them more selective about how and with whom they trade.

Currency trading continues to be dominated by what are euphemistically described as “other financial institutions”

This category includes smaller commercial and investment banks, as well as buy-side firms like pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds. In other words, not the banks.

Broadly, volumes of late have been lower with overall daily turnover declining to around USD 5.1 trillion in April 2016, from USD 5.3 trillion three years ago.

But the there has been a significant uptick in currency market volatility has increased over the past few years.

All eyes on Tuesday to see how the market fared through the events of the latter part of 2016. Expect a few surprises.

Global FX market remains buoyant

The publication of the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) Triennial FX Survey results revealed some fascinating findings.

As always, it continues to be the single most comprehensive, trusted and aggregated account of what has been going on in currency trading across venues, jurisdictions and a whole range of macro and micro criteria, and is keenly anticipated by the FX market.

So what did the report tell us?

The headline figure was that, as widely expected, average trading volumes fell slightly to USD5.1 trillion per day, down from USD5.3 trillion in 2013.

But this doesn’t tell the full story; the report found that the appreciation of the US dollar between 2013 and 2016 reduced the US dollar value of turnover in currencies other than the US dollar. This means that, when valued at constant exchange rates, turnover increased by about 4% between April 2016 and April 2013.

This a reality check for everyone with skin in the game. It tells us that the market has been reasonably resilient in the face of many challenges; the SNB revaluation, issues around conduct and low interest rates in major economies to name a few.

While spot transactions fell from USD2 trillion to USD1.7 trillion per day, the decline may have been driven by two main factors. Firstly, the unwillingness of major financial institutions to commit to risk taking activity, and a drop in market volatility. This means the alternative investment community and speculative traders, who are quite active in the spot market, are doing fewer transactions.

The geographical breakdown of trading is also interesting. When BIS last reported in 2013, London was the main FX trading centre by a comfortable margin, with more than 40% of all traded volumes, followed by New York. While London has continued to retain its crown three years on, activity has fallen by 5%, and New York’s share remains flat.

But Asia gained significant ground; Singapore (7.9%), Hong Kong SAR (6.7%) and Japan (6.1%) all increased their market share. The region continues to develop its currency markets and cross border trading continues to increase; it is a positive growth story for the FX market.

In terms of currencies, USD and EUR continue to remain unchallenged as the most actively traded, but the renminbi gained strong ground by moving into 8th place on the list. Emerging market currencies performed well overall, accounting for more than a fifth of trading.

Lastly, the banks have shored up their positions in the industry, in spite of the regulatory and conduct challenges the sector has faced.

Their position as the main FX trading posts was being challenged by a resurgent non-bank FX trading community, exemplified by the entry of XTX Markets in the top ten of Euromoney’s FX survey.

But trading has increased amongst the interdealer community, accounting for 42% of turnover in April 2016, compared with 39% in April 2013. Banks that are not reporting dealers accounted for a further 22% of turnover, while institutional investors were the third largest group of counterparties at 16%.

So overall, the global foreign exchange market continues to remain buoyant. It remains the largest and most liquid market in the world and a critical component of the global financial system.

As confidence in FX is restored through the global code of conduct and other initiatives, we will see a more liquid and stable marketplace emerge.

All FX Eyes on BIS Triennial Survey

The whole FX industry is watching for the Bank for International Settlements’ Triennial FX Survey results, due this afternoon at 2pm GMT.

Why does it matter? Chiefly because it is the single most comprehensive, trusted and aggregated account of what has been going on in currency trading across venues, jurisdictions and a whole range of macro and micro criteria.

It’s a reality check for everyone with skin in the game. It tells us what currencies are trading the most, where and by what means.

It also gives us a sneak peek at the real market share of the FX market transacted on the electronic platforms and through voice trading.

When BIS last reported in 2013, London was the main FX trading centre by a comfortable margin, with more than 40% of all traded volumes.

USD and EUR remained unchallenged as the most traded currencies, but the renminbi gained strong ground by moving into 9th place on the list. It will inevitably be higher on this occasion.

Since then, the market has experienced the SNB revaluation, issues around conduct and interest rate divergence among the major central banks.

Some established currency trading venues also lost market share and were hampered by reduced trading volumes. This points to a number of themes. Firstly, internalisation of trades at banks; secondly, a drop in overall volatility and trading opportunities; and third, greater competition from upstart trading venues, who grabbed a piece of the FX pie.

The position of the banks as the main FX trading posts is also being challenged by a resurgent non-bank FX trading community, exemplified by the entry of XTX Markets in the top ten of Euromoney’s survey.

This continues the trend evident in past Triennial Surveys. The counterparty segment that contributed the most to growth in global FX turnover between 2010 and 2013 included smaller banks that do not act as dealers, institutional investors, hedge funds and proprietary trading firms as well as official sector financial institutions, among others.

In the 2010 survey, this segment surpassed other reporting dealers (i.e. banks trading in the interdealer market) as the main counterparty category in the Triennial Survey for the first time.

What this shows is that the funds and HFTs are established as major players and are cleaning up their act to become genuine makers and takers in the market. This is an inevitable evolution and blurring of the buy and sell side.

This afternoon we expect the BIS to report relatively flat volumes, if not a dip on 2013. The gallery of top traded currencies will remain broadly the same but the devil will, however, be in the detail and the percentage movements showing direction.

There is will be many things to look out for. Which currencies were the most traded? Will London retain its FX crown? Which instruments were the most popular?

All will be revealed in the next few hours. The industry awaits…

Loonie increases share of international payments as renminbi slips

The Chinese renminbi dropped to sixth in the international payment ranking in June, according to SWIFT’s RMB Tracker.

The renminbi was overtaken by the Canadian dollar (CAD), commonly referred to as the ‘loonie’, which accounted for 1.96% of international payments to enter the top five most traded currencies. The RMB was marginally behind with a 1.72% share of international payments.

Despite this small hiccup, RMB internationalization remains on track. Over the past three years it has overtaken six currencies – including HKD, CHF and AUD – to increase its share of international payments exponentially.

SWIFT’s RMB Tracker also found that more than 1,200 banks used RMB for payments with China and Hong Kong in June 2016 – up by a fifth in just 12 months. Asia Pacific leads the way with 43% adoption, followed by the Americas at 42% adoption rate. Europe falls behind at 37% and the Middle East and Africa is at 34%.

There was also good news for the United Kingdom, which regained its status as the number one clearing centre after Hong Kong by processing a quarter of all RMB payments (excluding China and Hong Kong).

Overall, SWIFT remains optimistic about the RMB’s journey towards a more international currency. Alain Raes, Chief Executive, APAC & EMEA at SWIFT, explains that the journey towards full internationalisation is a long one, but “the creation of new offshore centres around the world combined with the progress of China’s new Cross Border inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS) will help move the RMB along its path towards internationalisation.”

For more insight and to download SWIFT’s latest RMB Tracker, please click here.

CLS’s aggregated FX trade data now available

CLS announced it has begun making its FX trade and volume data available via Quandl, an economic and financial data platform.

Subscribers to Quandl will now have access to CLS’s data, which will be delivered on an hourly, daily or monthly basis and aggregated by trade instrument (spot, swap and outright forward) and currency pair.

The currency settlement system, which settles 18 of the world’s most actively-traded currencies, receives an average submission of almost USD 5 trillion every day from banks, asset managers, corporations and hedge funds.

According to David Puth, CEO of CLS, this is the first time CLS has made this level of aggregate data readily available to the market. “It is a key source of trade information that will allow a broad range of users to get a clear picture of FX market activity across major currency pairs and products,” he says.

This view was backed up by Quandl’s co-founder and chief data officer Abraham Thomas, who spoke to trade publication Inside Market Data: “CLS had been aware for some time that it was sitting on a valuable data asset, but didn’t have the distribution infrastructure… or background in monetizing data. They reached out to us a few months ago when they became aware of our data marketplace… especially because our audience includes a bunch of hedge funds and asset managers.”

CLS has historically made aggregated and anonymized data available to the market, but the data made available through Quandl is available in a format more conducive to analysis and with greater frequency.

Customers interested in the data is expected to include large financial institutions, small financial services companies, software companies, academic institutions and research organizations.

Read the news story here.

JPY Gains, AUD Falls as China Weakens Yuan

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist, at DailyFX, comments:

“China has triggered another sharp burst of risk aversion after devaluing the Yuan by over 0.5 percent at today’s daily fix, marking the largest downward revision since Augusts’ fateful readjustment.  The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar dropped alongside Asian share prices while the safety-linked Japanese Yen outperformed. Cycle-sensitive commodities including copper and crude oil fell while gold and silver traded higher. Chinese stocks were shut down for the day after hitting the limit-down threshold of 7 percent.

 “The consensus interpretation for the markets’ negative response is that Chinese devaluation speaks to a need for emergency stimulus expansion, which implies greater-than-expected malaise in the world’s second-largest economy. Weakening the currency can be seen as a form monetary stimulus however, so one might have expected markets to cheer Beijing’s actions. With that in mind, it seems as though price action reflects a reflexive response drawing surface-level parallels with Augusts’ panic selling rather than a sober evaluation of China’s actions on their fundamental merits.

 “Looking ahead, S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower, hinting that risk aversion is aiming to continue in the hours ahead. The economic calendar is relatively quiet, putting the spotlight on Fed-speak as the source of event risk du-jour. Comments from Richard Lacker and Charles Evans, Presidents of the Richmond and Chicago Fed branches respectively, are due to cross the wires.

 “The two policymakers represent the hawkish and dovish extremes of last years’ contingent of FOMC voters. Traders will look to their remarks for clues about the likely 2016 rate hike path. The central bank projected four 25bps increases last month while the markets continue to envision no more than two. Investors’ dovish lean skews volatility risk to the upside for the US Dollar in the event that cumulative commentary strikes a hawkish tone.”