All eyes are on the FOMC monetary policy announcement. This time around, the statement following the sit-down will be accompanied by an updated set of official economic projections from Federal Reserve official and the first press Chairman’s press conference from Janet Yellen.
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Entries by ChatsworthCommunications
The March edition of Germany’s ZEW Survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the forward-looking Expectations index will fall for a third consecutive month to register at 52.0, the lowest since September 2013.
“Markets seem to be shrugging off initial risk following the weekend’s referendum in Crimea where over 90 percent of respondents opted of the semi-autonomous region’s secession from the Ukraine and annexation to Russia.
Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX, comments: “The consumption figures in the February US Advance Retail Sales report beat estimates across the board, but only after the January figures were revised lower. On net, US consumption is down by about -0.3% so far in 2014. Of course, one can’t dismiss the weather impact and […]
The average daily volume submitted to CLS, combining the settlement and aggregation services, was 1,150,663, down 5% from 1,210,588 in January. The average daily value submitted to CLS was US$5.15 trillion, down 2.7% from US$5.29 trillion
Another quiet day on the economic data front will put the spotlight on a busy ECB speaking calendar. No less than five of the central bank’s officials are due to cross the wires throughout the session.
David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst at DailyFX, comments: “The British Pound was the worst-performing G10 currency, falling to fresh multi-week lows versus the US Dollar on a wave of profit taking. Recent Commodity Futures and Trading Commission data showed speculative traders were recently at their most bullish on the British Pound since it set an […]
“A quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours offers little in terms of market-moving event risk. On the official commentary front, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to come across the wires
“The UK monetary authority seems to intent to keep things locked in place for a while after February’s change in the forward-guidance regime. The benchmark 10-year UK bond yield conspicuously topped out and began to decline on the same day that guidance was augmented, pointing to deteriorating support from the policy outlook…
“Conflict is brewing in Eastern Europe and it’s led to a surge in volatility across asset classes the past few days. But the conciliatory tone offered today by President Putin – and the removal of Russian troops from the Eastern Ukrainian border that were activated for ‘planned military drills’ – has offered reason anew to be bullish on risk assets…
“Risk sentiment is on the upswing across financial markets after yesterday’s Ukraine-inspired bloodletting. The newswires are attributing the chipper mood to reports that Russian President Putin recalled troops that had been performing military exercises in the western part of the country near the Ukrainian border…
Average daily volumes in the foreign exchange market rose by more than 20 percent in January from a slow December, data from FX settlement system CLS showed…
“The EURUSD has been trapped between $1.3680 and 1.3770 for the better part of the last week, and it’s going to need a catalyst aside from French jawboning about how a weaker Euro might help exports to move it from this range…
“Winter’ inclemency may or may not be impacting the US economy but US consumers are thus far weathering the weather. The Consumer Confidence gauge dropped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, but the Present Situation subcomponent climbed to its highest level over the past 12-months at 81.7. The Expectations subindex dropped to 75.7 from 80.8, but remains above the lows set near 71 around the October fiscal hot stove…
“Markets are off to a slow start in the opening hours of the trading week. A lacklustre economic calendar offers little by way of market-moving event risk, opening the door for big-picture themes to take centre stage[…]
Business Wire, which has published corporate news releases in the US for the last half century, will stop selling direct feeds to high- speed traders, amid concerns that the practice gives the firms an unfair advantage over other investors…
A quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours puts the spotlight on the “Fed-speak” calendar, with comments from FOMC policymaker Richard Fisher in focus[…]
“Optimism in global markets took a dent overnight as both Chinese and European PMI manufacturing figures disappointed, underscoring the rising concerns of a more concerted global slowdown. Global growth concerns couldn’t be coming at a worse time, when the US economy has undergone a series of disappointing data across all major points as the Federal Reserve winds down its stimulus program[…]
Derivatives technology and trade execution provider SuperDerivatives will provide volatility data to European derivatives exchange NYSE Liffe…
“UK event risk headlines the docket in European hours today with minutes from this month’s Bank of England policy meeting and January’s Jobless Claims data on tap. Traders will look to the former release to help further illuminate the discussion about the evolution of the MPC’s forward-guidance regime[…]
“The EURUSD has streaked back to its late-January highs as the weight of deflation talk has subsided once more. Not surprisingly, the more aggressive dovish commentary in recent weeks has come from France, a country with a declining rate of export growth over the past three-plus years[…]
“The GBPUSD’s impressive run may be hitting a near-term resting point as the conflux of several key levels offers a point of reference for longer-term buyers to take profit at as well as for short-term sellers to trade against.
Total Input Volumes1 and Values in January 2014:
Richard E. Grant, Chatsworth’s cover star, is to join the cast of Downton Abbey Richard lent his considerable grace and style to front Chatsworth’s rebrand and we’re delighted he’s joining one of our biggest TV exports, adding to his already impressive roll call of great movies and TV.
“‘The year of the US Dollar’ might be an appropriate summary for the consensus estimate on the street for which currency would be the top performer in 2014 […]
“Retail forex crowd positioning in GBPUSD may be the clearest example of emotions dictating trading decisions, rather than objective analysis, that we’ve noted to date. The GBPUSD recently broke the downtrend from the late-January highs, and retail traders, who were already short, chose to double down: they stepped up their shorts to their highest level since 2002. […]
Citi and JP Morgan have joined ParFX as founding members, the trading venue said on Wednesday, taking the number of core members to 14 and bringing the company closer to introducing prime brokerage clients in the coming months[…]
ITN interview with CLS for the British Bankers Association
In December 2013:
• The average daily volume submitted to CLS, combining the settlement and aggregation services, was 988,674 down 9.6% from 1,094,020 in November.
• The average daily value submitted to CLS was US$4.87 trillion, down 0.4% from US$4.89 trillion in November[…]